Posts Tagged ‘threat’

Successful hazard management means a perfect working of the flow of identification – communication – early-warning – early-response – reaction. No flow is possible if the first stages of it are missing: identification, communication, early-warning, and early-response.

It does not matter how many fancy devices, based on artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning, are designed to detect hazards; the best device will always be the human being. It has built-in intelligence and is a natural learner.

We should then aim at putting the citizen in the centre of the flow of identification, communication, early-warning, and early-response.

The population should be able to identify a hazard before it becomes a real risk.  It is necessary to involve the population at large by developing diffusion tools covering specific hazards. Those tools should be deployed geographically according to the hazard which applies to that particular area. For instance, flood dissemination tools should be deployed mainly in Central Europe, while fire dissemination tools would be deployed mainly in the Mediterranean areas. The aim is to make the population aware of the most likely hazard in their area and teach them how to act to minimise risks.

Special attention should be given to X-Events[1], the unknown unknown of an entirely unexpected event suddenly befalling an unsuspecting hapless community. Weak signals, such as the lone wolf terrorist, are difficult to identify using ICT-based systems. A network of “objective antennas” should be in place.  They will be people specially instructed to identify and evaluate threats, similar to those volunteers watching the local weather and acting as a network to provide reliable and valuable information about weather events. Only human “objective antennas” will identify weak signals on the ground and, also as importantly, filter fake news.

Identification is followed by communication. There is no need to encourage the use of social networks; as of 2020 the percentage of active social media users (16-74 years old) in the European Union is 55%[2], with countries like Denmark at 85%. The problem is the reliability of the information, or lack of it. People follow people, as the quick spread of fake news has proved many times.

There are very useful human based systems combating fake news, such as the one carried out by the Virtual Operation Support Team (VOST Europe)[3] association. Their objective is to support emergency services social media accounts, by diffusing their messages, and at the same time combating fake news.

The use of ICT tools should be but a complement to the work of humans if our aim is for effective and efficient hazard management.

[1] The X-Events Index. John Casti. The X-Center, Vienna. http://globalxnetwork.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/X-eventsIndex.pdf accessed 17/07/21

[2]https://www.statista.com/statistics/276767/social-network-usage-penetration-of-european-populations/ accessed 13/07/21

[3] https://vosteurope.org/

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